Saturday, May 30, 2009


News-news ni diambil dari IFR dan agak penting so simpan kat sini senang nak study balik. Sudah masuk 4 hari dok mengadap Bloomberg TV, IFR news dan Dow Jones News Wire... best :) a lot of things happen..

- North Korea.. so far effect pada market agak small, even bankers dari SAXO Bank, Singapore cakap "its not a big deal".
- US Consumer Confidence Index jump to 54.9, surpassing economist estimate iaitu 46.5, it means 'recovery is in the pogrress'.
- Hang Seng Index now at 7 month high..
- Thailand Stock index meningkat secara gradual selama 12 minggu berturut-turut.
- KLCI beautifully dancing above 1000 mark.
- On wednesday... Yields bagi 10 year Treasury notes dan 30 year Treasury melonjak ke 3.74 dan 4.69, ini menyebabkan stock market utama around the world drop 'sekejap'
and ianya juga drag USD/Yen higher as traders cuba untk 'carry trade'. Dalam ekonomi, kenaikan Yields terutamanya bagi 10 year Treasury akn menyebabkan 'Yields bagi mortgage bonds juga meningkat dan ini tidak bagus bagi Housing sector. Namun bagi pihak bank ianya mungkin bagus sbb bank boleh charge customer dgn interest rates yng tinggi, keburukannya.. jika rates terlalu tinggi, siapa nak ambil loan? so far today Yields turun balik ke area 3.46 bagi 10 year dan 4.34 bagi 30 year.
- Harga minyak dunia diparas 66 USD per barrel, probably akan terus naik sampai ke USD 75 per barrel.. ada correlation dgn USD/CAD.
- GOLD now eyeing 1000 simbolical mark.
- General Motor bankrupt??

18:01 EUR/USD: The Time Has Come To Talk Of Many Things...-2- New York, May 29th. On
the Euro Road Map, the overbought hourly Bollingers 9+2.0) reside at 1.4125, if spot closes here at 1.4125, it will be the first time since the year end squeeze that we have closed on or above the +2.0 Bollinger on two consecutive weeks. On that occasion we ripped higher by 3.35 big figs on the third week (above the previous week"s close) but closed the week down at 1.3920 for a loss of a big fig wk-on-wk. Spot then declined to 1.2460 over the following nine weeks. If the same was to happen this time around, spot would kiss 1.4460 before stalling. On that last occasion, the high on the week was 1.4125, and so the next week"s peak was just 2.35 big figs, so if price action emulates that a 1.4405 peak.
What is interesting about that is that the cycle gurus gave us a sneak peak at their EUR/USD projections yesterday, this was very exciting because we haven"t seen a Euro forecast since late April. The say "A break of 1.4020, will signal the Euro will rally to 1.4300 before peaking, but this is becoming less likely. Take profit on long currency positions on strength as following this peak they should turn lower and close below the support levels, confirming the start of a sustained downtrend lasting several months."

16:50 AUD/USD: Out of The Limelight New York, May 29. Aussie triggered the 0.8010 barrier once noon day models switched and specs took a stab at it.
Surveying the weekly strategies, Aussie seems to have lost its Paris Hilton appeal at these levels. It is playing a support role as the limelight turns to NOK, BRL, and GBP. NZD and CAD were front and center last week and still remain on stage but are more passive longs than active.
The good news for Aussie is that time decay has worked in its favor. It had 8 days of rest around the 0.7800 level before plowing ahead today. Dual Bollinger Bands suggest that Aussie will meet resistance between 0.7995 and 0.8040 but momentum can work in its favor.
The fact that the CRB hit a multi-month high today is supportive but Aussie"s progress will likely be related to the rally in Asian shares. The All Ords are up 0.25% m-t-d. By contrast, the Nikkei is up 11% and the Hang Seng is up 20%. The rise in Asia shares is the reason why the shipping indices have been moving sharply higher. Though valuation interest in commodity currencies has waned, any sign of pick up in Asian economic activity could reignite Aussie"s fire. The Rio/Chinalco deal exemplifies the link between China"s growth and Australia"s prospects. Should this deal fall apart, then Aussie longs that bought on M&A prospects will be disappointed. Until then, AUSD/USD has good support at 0.7920 and AUD/JPY is targeting 81.25.

15:41 EUR/USD: Stubbornly Bid, Closing The Month With A Bang New York, May 29th. With widespread talk of fixing requirements to dump Euro in decent size, the single currency is surprisingly well bid. The pair gouged out 1.4166 highs just ahead of the 11.00AM fix, has surrendered a little ground subsequently, off 30 pips, having bounced off 1.4120, and cruising into the London close in the catbird seat. New York traders are a little leery buying the tops, after all they did the same last Friday when 1.4050 printed, and the pair slipped to 1.3790 before turning around.
With Asian central bank names on the bid on dips throughout the month, you have to be just a little skeptical about the timing of South Korea"s announcement they will buy less USD denominated Treasuries going forward, the catalyst for the buck"s overnight demise. The extra bit of fluff to the topside in Europe related to an errant story that the UAE was also reducing the USD component of its reserves, subsequently amended to NOT reducing USD reserves. Price action on the month has been reminiscent of last year"s sovereign wealth sparked run to 1.6040, the bully boys always buying enough to turn it when P&Ls started to look sickly. With US equities co-operating it has been relatively easy for these deep pocket players this month, next month could get difficult as valuations become stretched in both equity markets and currencies. Spot last 1.4120, overbought hourly Bollingers 1.4145/1.4215.

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy Again at 1.4035
EUR/USD - 1.4097

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Up
Tenkan-Sen level : 1.3964
Kijun-Sen level : 1.3964
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.3885
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.3737

Original trading strategy : Long position at 1.3920 met target at 1.4020

New strategy is : Buy at 1.4035, Target : 1.4140, Stop : 1.3980

The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3906 yesterday in New York session as expected (our long entry level was 1.3920 and got a fill there), then euro rallied today and met our target at 1.4020 (making another 100 points profit). Once resistance at 1.4051 was penetrated, the single currency gathered momentum and rallied to a fresh 2009 high of 1.4151 before easing.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bullish cross-over of Tenkan-Sen above Kijun-Sen provided a strong buy signal, suggesting the upmove from 1.2457 remains in progress for gain to 1.4167 (100% projection of 1.2457 to 1.3739 measuring from 1.2885), however, upside should be limited to 1.4180 (61.8% projection of 1.3425 to 1.4051 measuring from 1.3793) and reckon 1.4216, being 1.618 projection of 1.3793 to 1.3984 measuring from 1.3906, would hold today.

In view of this, whilst we are still looking to buy euro on pullback but one must not get overly bullish on next rise and should take profit when price approaches 1.4180. On the downside, expect renewed buying interest to emerge around 1.4028 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3906 to 1.4151) and support at 1.3984 (previous resistance turned support) should continue to hold for eventual rally to abovementioned target.

Loss of 1.3984 would suggest a temporary top is in place and retracement to 1.3950 and 1.3910 would follow but euro’s downside would be limited to 1.3850/60.


momentinlife said...

kamu sgt rajin..
tp sy tak phm ape2 pn.. muehehe

(baca abis, tp ttp blur..=p)

zaidi ali said...

Salam Zaidon.
Ada ke bank kapitalis yg dah bankrupt? Citigroup masih ok?

Zaidon said...

Moment- rajin sbb nanti memang nak masuk market. Wafa tak perlu baca habis.. :) sbb yng kat bawah tu semua news tntg Euro dan Australian dollar.. boleh juga baca, tapi takut tak faham :)

Salam En.Zaidi.. so far bank2 kecil kat US memang banyak yng dah tutup, lebih dari 30 buah bank, Citigroup ok seiring dgn Bank of America dan JP Morgan, saya banyak study tntg Bank of America..

Lifesaver said...

hehehe..blaja lama x practic..lupa :)

Zaidon said...

Takpa.. nanti lama2 ingat la tu :)

Jard The Great said...

ku pon tak fhm..w akaka..

John Iverson said...

Erk.... nk komen tp x reti la bro... bukan bidang... tp nk tnya la... knp ekonomi dunia down ek?

nahmy said...

mungkin saya salah tp klu kita nak study 'fundamental analysis' ni boleh 'meroyan' kita. sbb? setiap saat dia bertukar. kita rasanya bukan nak cari jln mudah tapi kita cuba cari jln singkat. isn't work smart is better... lgpun fundamental analysis mungkin 'membantu' tp dia bukanlah the ultimate guidance..tak gitu?? wallahualam...sorry, ini hanyalah pendapat marhaen saya.